Blog Posts

Commercial St

March 30, 2022

Commercial St The high street dilemma: I have been offered these two different sites off market. The first is a big (empty/run down) retail unit, with a large 3 story building attached at the back. The second is a very grand 4 story, retail/commercial building, which is ripe for conversion into residential flats. The council has identified this area for regeneration and urban renewal, and it will come…but no one knows when. Currently the residential sqft values are very low (£170/sqft) so factoring purchase price and build costs, it’s very tight to make a margin with the GDV. The flip side is; get in early and you could make a killing in the long term. Ultimately it will depend on your view on the role of the high street, when and if it will bounce back and if so when to jump in. Property 1 Property 2 The high street dilemma: I have been offered these two different sites off market. The first is a big (empty/run down) retail unit, with a large 3 story building attached at the back. The second is a very grand 4 story, retail/commercial building, which is ripe for conversion into residential flats. The council has identified this area for regeneration and urban renewal, and it will come…but no one knows when. Currently the residential sqft values are very low (£170/sqft) so factoring purchase price and build costs, it’s very tight to make a margin with the GDV. The flip side is; get in early and you could make a killing in the long term. Ultimately it will depend on your view on the role of the high street, when and if it will bounce back and if so when to jump in. A typical high street. It appears to me that many town centres have been regenerated with upgraded paved areas with new shops and bars. These give a modern, ‘fresh’/‘clean’ shopping experience. These are home to the likes of TK Max, Fitness First, M&S Food Halls, Costa etc However this has left those outlying areas, with more traditional, say 1970’s and 80’s stores, left behind. Those previously big anchor, blue chips stores, Debenhams, BHS, Woolworths & betting shops have either gone or are going. This combined with downsizing of office spaces, leave huge footprints unoccupied….the question is, what can take their place? And how are these areas going to come back to life?

Woodland Project

March 30, 2022

Woodland Project Location: 50 Acre Wood, Bristol Feels like: Amazon deforestation. The sign reads; that due to Ash Dieback the Forestry Commission are taking precautionary measures to remove trees from mountain bike paths and bridal ways in case of falling branches. From the before and after pictures I’ve taken while walking the dog, it looks and feels like a clean sweep and removal of pretty much anything living over 4 feet tall… They are planning to replant native trees over next couple of years…sadly I’ll be long gone before they reach maturity.

Nalisea Project

March 30, 2022

Nalisea Project Pleased to say our latest project is recently finished. Location: Bristol Timeframe: 8 weeks The Project: Removal of external garage and convert into a child’s bedroom with en-suite and new office…..oh yes and quote “and put a new kitchen and utility room in as well while you’re at it!” Notes: Particular urgency required due to the client’s child’s on-going physical disability needs. This included installing a bespoke loo and shower unit designed for disability use. Very pleased to say, all very happy and settled back in, with the little one loving his own ‘splash’ room!

Inflation hits 10-year high as energy, fuel and clothing costs jump

December 16, 2021

https://urbantribeproperty.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/WhatsApp-Video-2021-12-15-at-9.06.46-PM.mp4 With the news today that inflation has risen over 5% and is at it’s highest point in 10 years. I’m doing some digging to understand how banks work, how it may affect interest rates, and what might this mean for house prices in 2022. Part 1: Is an overview on how banks and lenders are affected by changes to the Bank of England Base rates. ——————————————————————————————————————- Inflation hits 10-year high as energy, fuel and clothing costs jump The cost of living surged by 5.1% in the 12 months to November, up from 4.2% the month before, and its highest level since September 2011. Higher transport and energy costs drove the rise, which was above forecasts of a 4.7% increase, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said. Its chief economist Grant Fitzner said more expensive fuel, energy, clothing and second hand cars were big factors. The cost of raw materials also rose significantly, he added. “A wide range of price rises contributed to another steep rise in inflation, which now stands at its highest rate for over a decade,” he said. BBC headline, Dec 15th 2021 Does an increase in inflation automatically stimulate base rate rises? When people think about inflation they often associate it with a Bank of England (BoE) interest rise to control the rise, is that likely to happen this time? Well it’s not always the case that a change in the BoE’s rate, either up or down, flows directly through to the market. The reason for that is, because while residential mortgages and Buy to Let mortgages are mostly delivered by banks, they can also be delivered by lenders (as opposed to banks) in the form of bridging for commercial mortgages, development finance. These lenders may or may not be affected by the base rate, depending on where their finance comes from. For banks, who deliver the majority of mortgages in the UK, the way the way an other business works, from a profit and loss point of view; If a mortgages is thought about as a loan, then a loan is a profit and loss statement. The first line of the spreadsheet is the income line, that reflects the interest and fees that you receive from delivering the loan product. Underneath that you’ve got all the costs that come with delivering the product (ie cost of operations; sales staff, underwriters, commissions etc). These are fixed costs and don’t change with the base rate. In addition banks factor in a risk factor for bad debt, where they set aside a percentage of their income against possible default (unemployment escalation, covid increases, cost of living increase etc). And finally you have the cost of capital, which is where the base rate feeds into. All these factors mixed into together will produce an interest offer that they are comfortable with. What you have seen, even though the BoE rates have been at record lows, there wasn’t much margin left on these loans and the cost of finance part of it was relatively small part of the mix. So there wasn’t much room for rates to come down. There wasn’t much room for banks to do a lot, even with base rate coming down because all of their other costs stayed the same. With the challenger bank and lenders it depends on the sort of source of their funds. They may have had an injection from funds from hedge funds, pension funds, private individuals, so depending on what their particular situation is, they may or may not be directly affected by base rates changes. Ultimately each bank or lender will have its own view on the world and that will drive the assumptions they make in modeling their loans and therefore where their pricing will go too.

Book Review: This is Going to Hurt by Adam Kay

May 25, 2021

This is going to Hurt by Adam Kay What’s it about? This is going to Hurt (2017) is a revealing and brilliantly hilarious look at the daily reality of working as a doctor in the UK. The book follows Adam as he rises through the ranks of the National Health Service. Every chapter has a witty, usually painful, always funny anecdote, and more often than not, they’re disturbingly grim. Adam’s personal recollections and diary entries offer warts and all look at the life of a doctor going about his business. Be it removing a plethora of objects in places they have no right to be in; tv remotes with condoms on them up the back passage (ouch), or engagement rings in a kinder egg in the holiest of holies only to get stuck. The list of unimaginable antics people get up to is amazing and quite baffling. During Adam’s 90-hour workweek, these events are all told in his dry, non-judgemental gallows humour kind of way. It’s a great read if you want to pick yourself up by reading about other people’s misfortunes! Who is it for? Medical students and aspiring doctors People curious about healthcare in the UK Anyone interested in some bleak medical horror stories Anyone with a dark sense of humour

On Business: Finding Motivated Sellers and The Sales Funnel

May 25, 2021

The property market isn’t like the stock market, where you purchase items for a fixed, predetermined price. It’s more like a street market, where the price is decided by mutual agreement between buyer and seller. As all people are different, you’ll get different outcomes from each negotiation. Emotion has a lot to do with it. If you’re buying or selling your own home, you’ll pay the retail price. But as investors, we want to play the wholesale price. To do this, you don’t go out and look for below market value property. You look for motivated sellers.How do you find them… traditionally, you look for the three D’s: Death Debt Divorce However, during Covid, these three traditional routes have been an anomaly. The government has put a hold on debt/repossessions. Sadly death has crept up. However, with lockdown, the probate process has been slowed down, and everything is taking longer. But happily, the divorces rate has slowed down during this time. But as we come out of lockdown it may give rise to the usual 3D rule and we get back to a feeling of normality! So while this may sound grim, the truth is that you’re finding a solution, a win win for both parties. Debt: If you’re being repossessed, you’re liable for that debt for years after you’ve lost the house. Banks can come after you just when you’re getting back on your feet. In addition, your credit rating falls off a cliff which leads to long term struggles. Therefore, agreeing on a deal, which may be below market value, it’s a lot better than being repossessed by the bank. Divorce: At a time of splitting, it’s an immensely stressful time. Do people really want the hassle of tidying up, organizing the house before people come traipsing around your house checking out your curtains? It just adds to all the stress.Furthermore, in addition, people get caught in the chain, and the purchase falls through. 1 in 3 sales fall through, plus it’s taking something north of 3 months to complete. For an investor, with your power team and access to money and a firm promise, a quick sale can be worth its weight in gold. It’s not similar to the second-hand car market. You can sell it online with lots of tyre kickers or a ‘we buy any car’.You’ll get a cheaper deal, but you’ll walk out of there with cash in your hand. Systemising your luck… Lead Flow funnel You need: 50 leads coming in every month. 10 will meet the criteria 6 will be worth viewing 4 you can offer on (if you get that far, put an offer in). 1 you’ll purchase. To get lucky each month, you need to keep filling the funnel up. Three ingredients to getting a below market deal: Motivation – clear and compelling reason why the seller has to sell. If they’re wishy-washy, they won’t sell. Deadline, they need to be out by X time… i.e. divorce, job move Capacity to accept a BMV deal, i.e. the equity, i.e. if their mortgage is greater than the offer, then it’s not going to work. Toolbox for coming up with finding the solution to their problem. You have to figure out what the problem is for resolving their issue. Too often, people try to offer one solution, i.e. purchase lease option. However, there are many more, delayed completion, vendor finance, assisted sale and many others. So to get the best solution, you need to meet the vendor and find out what they actually want. The magic wand question…..‘if I had a magic wand, where would you like to be at the end of this negotiation’ apart from finding out about their price, more importantly, you’ll find out about their end game and what they’re hoping to achieve. From that, you can work backwards to help them achieve it… Engineer a Solution!

The Importance of Sport in Writing Your Own Story

May 25, 2021

The news this week that UK Sport has agreed to invest £375,000 into British Water Polo along with several other team sports (Handball, Softball & Volleyball) is a very welcome return and a much-needed kiss of life into these sports. Since the giddy days of 2012, it’s been a pretty abject decline for the men and women senior water polo teams. Since 2012 the sport has been withering on the vine, and GB hasn’t fielded a senior team since 2014. However, with this money comes a new ambition to resurrect the senior programme. Not least because; how do you attract young people into a sport when there’s no elite level? Water polo is a very technical sport. You have to start very early with skill acquisition (preferably from age 7 up), and because it’s so physical, your peak isn’t until your mid to late ’20s. So it’s often a 20+ year journey to reach the elite level. Since 2005 I have been involved in coaching GB Junior teams. We’ve had some great results (most notably 8th at the World Championships & 6th and the European Champs). Whist I fully appreciate, these aren’t near the medals. These were considerable achievements for those players, for what is, in reality, a very uneven playing surface. My unwavering advice to those young players I’ve coached along the way has always been to use water polo as a vehicle to travel and experience the World. If you want to continue your polo journey, don’t stay in the UK. I’m proud to say probably my greatest achievement has been to convince players to leave these shores and go and create their own stories overseas. I’ve coached players who have gone on to attend University in Hawaii, San Jose, Indiana, Arizona, Michigan, New York and Berkeley. Similarly, players have gone to play in Australia, Hungary, Spain, New Zealand and France, plus many have been invited to play for clubs around Europe. Like most things, your perspective is your reality. My reality has been that water polo has been the central thread of my life. Having left home at 18 with two bags and a backpack to head to UC Berkeley, I didn’t, in effect, life back home for 17 years. Most of that time was spent involved in playing or coaching elite level sport overseas. That journey led me to some incredible highs – winning two NCAA championships, representing GB and Australia (as a player and coach for both countries) and attending four Olympic games. But it came with some desperately sad lows, losing friends in a fraternity fire (detailed by Sports Illustrated) and the murder of a close friends sister. There have been many, many stories along the way. I have been a ‘Best Man’ three times, once to a Brit marrying a Yank in California, once to a Yank marrying an Aussie in Sydney, and once to an Aussie marrying an Aussie in Cambridge. None of these would have happened without the thread of sport. I look at my Facebook “friends”, and ¾ of them are from people I’ve met overseas. The purpose of writing this piece was to reflect on what a difference sport can make. Hopefully, the opportunity that this new funding gives is a chance for the next generation of young people to take up the sport, train seriously, represent their country, experience the highs and lows that it will inevitably bring, but above all: allow them to start writing their own great story.

Book Review: Black Box Thinking By Matthew Syed

May 25, 2021

I like Matthew Syed for a few reasons, really; his podcast ‘Flintoff, Savage and the Ping Pong Guy with Robbie Savage and Andrew Flintoff was honest, insightful, and loads of fun. Secondly, for calling out Pier Morgan (in his Sunday Times newspaper column) for being a self-aggrandising, thin-skinned social media bully. And thirdly for writing his complex yet easy to understand fascinating books on human behaviour. In his book Black Box Thinking (2015), He explores how failure is actually one of our greatest assets despite all the shame and pain associated with it. Full of practical tips on developing a healthy, productive relationship to failure, Black Box Thinking will help you change your mindset and the way you can deal with failure. Based on the principle that aircraft have a black box, which means every mistake, can and is scrupulously investigated so that it doesn’t happen again. It’s a metaphor for life in that we can learn from our mistakes. He contrasts this with the medical world, where death can and does happen through a doctor’s misdiagnosis or poor management. However, Syed explains that due to ego and the established norms of dealing with such incidents, they do not get investigated… the opposite to what happens in the airline industry. So mistakes keep on happening, and people keep on dying. Who’s it for? Psychological enthusiasts who want to know a bit more about how the mind works. Anyone who’s sick of making the same mistakes People who want to turn failure into success. Key Ideas People are afraid of failure because it compromises their self-esteem. Failure certainly hurts, but it’s a necessary precursor to improvement. If you can’t admit your mistakes, then you’ll never progress. To learn and develop, you have to subject your theories to failure. Failure inspires great solutions and helps fine-tune a complicated process. Reaching your full potential requires embracing failure. Summary It’s hard to admit mistakes, but if you want to meet your full potential, then you not only have to recognise that you make mistakes but embrace them as part of your path to success. Indeed he argues that without failure, there is no progress.

Is Movie Lockdown Madness Getting the Better of You?

May 25, 2021

Like many people with kids, the weekend starts on Friday evening with the battle over the remote control of which film to watch. This invariable leads me to be blamed for choosing something automatic “rubbish” because I am over three years old. So instead and inevitably, we get to watch either a Marvel CGI shoot ‘em up, a Jennifer Anniston rom-com or Adam Sandler’s latest offering. Last Friday we reached an all-time low; Kong vs Godzilla…for which I got talked into paying £14 for the new release (we haven’t been to the cinema in ages, etc.)…what utter and complete dross…aaaaaahhhhhhhh. So to kill two birds with one stone, I’ve taken to locking myself in the garage on my turbo trainer watching the stuff I like. Having cycled my way through Narco’s series 1,2 &3, then into Narco’s Mexico (all amazing). I’ve turned to documentaries. In my opinion, there’s non-better than the BBC’s (iPlayer) series: Storyville. They are incredibly filmed, insightful, often thrilling, always jaw-dropping….proper grown-up TV. If you were to offer them up to Hollywood, most of these stories would be turned down as being too far-fetched. As they say, the fact is stranger than fiction. Then these three are unmissable. The first one is the gonzo story about how the Pittsburg Penguins thought running a hockey franchise in Moscow would be a good idea. It may have been, except that Russia was about to enter a time of lawlessness, chaos, corruption & mafia control. It’s properly nuts. The second will leave you shaking your head, saying, “whatever next”. It reveals how a simple cartoon meme was hijacked and contorted into a far-right symbol of hate by social media and used as a dog whistle by Trump and his supporters. It’s a story of our time…and a scary one at that. The third shadows the trials and tribulations of a Russian Olympic gymnast. I’ve coached many GB teams against Russia. And undoubtedly, they are amazing athletes. When they’re winning, there’s no one happier with more smiles, but I’ve often thought they don’t just look unhappy when they don’t win. They look scared. Watching this, I now know why. 1. Red Penguins: Money, Murder and Ice Hockey. The Beeb says about it: A tale of capitalism and opportunism run amok – complete with gangsters, strippers and live bears serving beer on a hockey rink in Moscow. Shortly after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Pittsburgh Penguins and the famed Red Army hockey team formed a joint venture that showed that anything was possible in the new Russia. Eccentric marketing whiz Steve Warshaw is sent to Russia and tasked with transforming the team into the greatest show in Moscow. He takes the viewer on a bizarre journey, highlighting a pivotal moment in US-Russia relations in a lawless era when oligarchs made their fortunes, and multiple murders went unsolved. 2. Pepe the Frog: Feels Good Man. The Beeb says: Pepe the Frog started life in 2005 as a cute cartoon character in Boy’s Club, an American indie comic on Myspace. Today, he is known as an international hate symbol after being hijacked by the alt-right. Pepe the Frog: Feels Good Man follows Pepe’s creator, artist Matt Furie, as he fights to bring back his lovable comic-book character from the dark forces who stole him. As the internet exploded, memes of the benign and chill frog dude started sweeping the internet with lightning speed. Once his image found its way into the controversial online community 4chan – the anonymous, anything-goes forum rife with misogyny and racism – there was no turning back. Pepe re-emerged from the darkest corner of the internet, decorated with swastikas and spewing racist slurs. He was even caught up in Donald Trump’s presidential campaign. Exactly how that happened is a wild journey into the heart of online life today, and an exploration of how a character meant to bring joy and fun slowly morphed into something else. Maybe, just maybe, he can change again. 3. Russian Dreams of Olympic Gold: Over the limit The Beeb says: “You’re not a human being. You’re an athlete.” 20-year-old Rita is told by one of her two merciless coaches as she prepares to represent Russia in rhythmic gymnastics at the Olympics. It’s the most crucial year of her career and her last chance to achieve her ultimate dream, a gold medal. However gracefully Rita catches rings of rolls a ball across her shoulders, her coaches demand more from her, time and again. Described as the ‘black swan’ of sports documentaries, Over the Limit offers unprecedented access to the hidden world of elite gymnastics and the unrelentingly brutal training demands by the Russian system. Photo by Ricardo Ortiz from Pexels

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